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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd