Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
