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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising together. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still